Hydropower and climate change concerning to the implementation of the First National Determined Contribution in Ecuador

Sebastian Naranjo-Silva; Omar Rolando  Quimbita-Chiluisa

doi:10.46380/rias.vol5.e268

Autores

Sebastian Naranjo-Silva Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, España https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1430-8140
Omar Rolando Quimbita-Chiluisa Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas, Ecuador https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8332-2173

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46380/rias.vol5.e268

Palavras-chave:

energia, hidroeletricidade, meio ambiente, mudança climática, renovável, sustentável

Resumo

O aquecimento global ameaça o abastecimento de água do mundo, representando uma ameaça significativa para a geração de energia hidrelétrica. No entanto, o aumento contínuo da demanda de energia devido ao crescimento populacional e ao desenvolvimento socioeconômico exige essa fonte renovável. O artigo pretende analisar a tendência futura das mudanças climáticas no desenvolvimento hidrelétrico em cinco usinas (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón e Delsintagua) em relação à implementação da Contribuição Nacional Determinada. A metodologia é exploratória e apresenta duas abordagens: qualitativa e quantitativa. Para projetar os cenários utilizamos dados do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas referentes a três linhas de evolução A1, B1 e B2. Os resultados mostram que a mudança climática constitui um dos desafios mais importantes que o Equador enfrenta para cumprir a Contribuição Nacional Determinada porque a energia hidrelétrica apresenta uma ineficiência de 15,8% nos últimos 20 anos. Os cenários mostram uma redução na capacidade total dos projetos hidrelétricos até 2050 de aproximadamente 1.909 MW para A1, 2.041 MW para B1 e 2.132 MW para B2.

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