Spatial Analysis of Forest Landscape Dynamics in Mesoamerica (2015-2022).
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46380/rias.v9.e614Keywords:
ecological connectivity, forest degradation, landscape ecology, Markov chains, Red List of EcosystemsAbstract
The transformation of the Mesoamerican landscape is degrading broadleaf and montane forests, increasing their vulnerability and ecosystem risk. The research analyzed the relationship between transformation, fragmentation, and anthropogenic threats in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, with the aim of generating spatial evidence to prioritize areas for ecological restoration. Forest cover data from 2015 and 2022, landscape metrics, and Markovian land-use change models were used, integrated with criteria A2a, B1, and B2 of the Red List of Ecosystems. The results show losses of undisturbed forest of 55.3% in Mexico and 35.2% in Guatemala. In Honduras, fragmentation increased by 99.7%, while in El Salvador deforested land could increase by 872% by 2030. These trends are associated with agricultural and livestock expansion, urbanization, and forest fires. It is concluded that ecosystem risk arises from the spatial interaction between cover loss, fragmentation, and human pressures. The integration of spatial analysis, change modeling, and risk assessment offers a useful tool for guiding ecological restoration, strengthening territorial planning, and targeting interventions in the most vulnerable forest landscapes of Mesoamerica over the coming decades through sustainable strategic decisions.
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