Revista Iberoamericana Ambiente & Sustentabilidad Vol. 5, 2022

gestión sustentable de recursos hídricos

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46380/rias.v5.e268

Investigation article

Hydropower and climate change concerning to the implementation of the First National Determined Contribution in Ecuador

La hidroelectricidad y cambio climático en torno a la implementación de la Primera Contribución Nacional Determinada en Ecuador

Energia hidrelétrica e mudanças climáticas na implementação da Primeira Contribuição Nacional Determinada no Equador

Sebastian Naranjo-Silva / Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Spain / hector.sebastian.naranjo@upc.edu

Omar Rolando Quimbita-Chiluisa / University of Armed Forces, Ecuador / quimbita.omar@gmail.com

Recibido: 14/04/2022 Aceptado: 12/08/2022 Publicado: 22/09/2022

ABSTRACT

Global warming threatens the world's water supplies, posing a significant threat to hydropower generation, however the continuing increase in energy demand due to world population growth and socio-economic development requires this renewable source. The manuscript aims to analyze the future tendency of climate change in hydropower development in five emblematic plants (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón, and Delsintagua) concerning the implementation of National Determined Contribution. The article's methodology is exploratory with information on hydropower development in Ecuador since 20 projects are already working, and it presents two qualitative and quantitative approaches. To project the scenarios, we use data according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change related to three evolution lines A1, B1, and B2. The results show that climate change constitutes one of the most significant challenges in Ecuador faces in meeting the National Determined Contribution because hydropower energy has an inefficiency of 15.8% in the last 20 years. The scenarios show a reduction A1 up to 1909 MW to 2050, in the medium scenario B1 to 2041 MW, and in the conservative scenario B2 to 2132 MW from the total capacity for the emblematic hydropower projects thinker in 2275 MW initially.

Keywords: climate change, energy, environment, hydropower, renewable, sustainable

RESUMEN

El calentamiento global amenaza los suministros de agua del mundo, lo que representa una amenaza significativa para la generación de energía hidroeléctrica. Sin embargo, el continuo aumento de la demanda de energía debido al crecimiento de la población y al desarrollo socioeconómico requiere esta fuente renovable. El artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la tendencia futura del cambio climático en el desarrollo hidroeléctrico en cinco centrales (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón y Delsintagua) en relación con la implementación de Contribución Nacional Determinada. La metodología es exploratoria y presenta dos enfoques: cualitativo y cuantitativo. Para proyectar los escenarios utilizamos datos del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático relacionados con tres líneas de evolución A1, B1 y B2. Los resultados muestran que el cambio climático constituye uno de los desafíos más importantes que enfrenta Ecuador para cumplir con la Contribución Nacional Determinada debido a que la energía hidroeléctrica presenta una ineficiencia del 15.8% en los últimos 20 años. Los escenarios muestran una reducción de la capacidad total para los proyectos hidroeléctricos hasta 2050 cercana a los 1909 MW para A1, de 2041 MW para B1 y 2132 MW en B2.

Palabras clave: cambio climático, energía, hidroelectricidad, medio ambiente, renovables, sostenibles

RESUMO

O aquecimento global ameaça o abastecimento de água do mundo, representando uma ameaça significativa para a geração de energia hidrelétrica. No entanto, o aumento contínuo da demanda de energia devido ao crescimento populacional e ao desenvolvimento socioeconômico exige essa fonte renovável. O artigo pretende analisar a tendência futura das mudanças climáticas no desenvolvimento hidrelétrico em cinco usinas (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón e Delsintagua) em relação à implementação da Contribuição Nacional Determinada. A metodologia é exploratória e apresenta duas abordagens: qualitativa e quantitativa. Para projetar os cenários utilizamos dados do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas referentes a três linhas de evolução A1, B1 e B2. Os resultados mostram que a mudança climática constitui um dos desafios mais importantes que o Equador enfrenta para cumprir a Contribuição Nacional Determinada porque a energia hidrelétrica apresenta uma ineficiência de 15,8% nos últimos 20 anos. Os cenários mostram uma redução na capacidade total dos projetos hidrelétricos até 2050 de aproximadamente 1.909 MW para A1, 2.041 MW para B1 e 2.132 MW para B2.

Palavras chave: energia, hidroeletricidade, meio ambiente, mudança climática, renovável, sustentável

INTRODUCCIÓN

Globally, there are still around 22% of households without access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency this represented 1.5 billion people living in remote areas that were often difficult to connect to national or regional grids in 2008. In developing countries, it is estimated that 85% of the population lives in rural areas, mostly peri-urban and remote rural areas (Niez, 2010; Berga, 2016).

However, the scientists mentioned that the 2004 year is different, set against the backdrop of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A 2021 survey of more than 2500 energy leaders from 108 countries mentioned that the world needs an energy transition from renewables agenda, identifying the risks, opportunities, and action priorities for their sector (Lohrmann et al., 2021; World Energy Council, 2004).

In recent years, renewable energy has played a bigger role in producing electricity than ever before. For example, hydropower accounted for 60% of clean energy production in 2018, followed by wind power (21%), solar photovoltaic power (9%), and bioenergy (8%). Overall, installed renewable energy capacity at the end of 2020 was sufficient to supply around 26.2% of global electricity production (International Hydropower Association, 2021).

Moreover, hydropower resource utilization nowadays holds a high position in the global electric power balance. After the Second World War, electric power production by hydropower projects was rapidly increasing: from 200 TWh in 1946 to 860 TWh in 1965, and from 975 TWh in 1978 to 4370 TWh in 2020 worldly (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2020; Naranjo-Silva & Álvarez, 2022). In the last 55 years, hydropower generation has been growing more 408%.

Nevertheless, the hydropower potential is still under used. With the project's production data, the International Hydropower Association determined that 74% of the potential in developing regions had not yet been built. Even with the continued advance over the last ten years (mainly in Asia and Latin America), most of the world's potential capacity has not been developed (International Hydropower Association, 2018). For example, in 2012, the global generation of hydropower was 3670 TWh, but the global technical potential is approximately four times that amount, around 14 680 TWh (International Hydropower Association, 2021).

Hydropower is a clean, renewable technology that can offer profits, such as water supply, flood control, economic development, and recreation (Hartmann, 2020). But the expected and continuous changes in hydrology are at the core of the relationship among hydropower and climate change (Naranjo-Silva & Álvarez, 2021b).

There is unfortunately another challenge that needs to be addressed together with trying to reintroduce renewable energies, and in particular hydropower. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change and greenhouse gases are trapping heat, accelerating the level of global warming in an aggressive and agile manner, and reducing the water required for the constant hydrological cycle needed for life (Jabbari & Nazemi, 2019; Uamusse et al., 2020).

Climate change has been one of the core stimuli that brand societies change how they use natural resources sensitive to climate variations (Shove, 2010). Society adapts to changes when necessary to survive, and the consumption patterns of the most natural resources are no longer considered sustainable if new lifeways are not adopted (Antwi & Sedegah, 2018).

Thus, with the promotion of hydropower and taking precautions against the impacts of climate change, in 2019, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition of Ecuador presented the First National Determined Contribution (NDC) as a tool that has an objective to guide the application of the actions at the national, sectorial and local levels that encourage the reduction of greenhouse gases, as well as the increase in adaptive capacity and risk reduction in the adverse effects, the face of climate change in the prioritized sectors, including the energy sector (Ministry of the Environment, 2019; Llerena-Montoya et al., 2021).

One of the impacts related to the National Plan for the Complementation of the Determined Contribution is that there are past extreme events related to rainfall that would cause that the 15.9% of the area is under flood risk of 15.9% of the national surface, in which 49.5% of the total population would settle of the country (Ministry of Environment and Water, 2021). To this end, said Ministry offers the following trend according to information on the initiatives of the energy sector:

The potential for reducing greenhouse gasses emissions due to the displacement of diesel used in electricity generation is considered. The plants are assumed to correspond to that power installed from 2010 to November 2018 (Emblematic Projects) and will operate between 2020 and 2025, and the specific projects are listed in table 2.

According to the Implementation Plan of the First National Determined Contribution of Ecuador for 2020-2025, the country is susceptible to the effects of climate change and is threatened due to its social, economic, and environmental conditions due to the increasingly frequent and intense rainfall and extreme temperatures (Ministry of Environment and Water, 2021; Rivera-González et al., 2020).

Hence, this paper presents historical energy hydropower data of Ecuador and aims to analyze the future tendency of climate change in hydropower development in five emblematic plants (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón, and Delsintagua) concerning to the implementation the National Determined Contribution of this Latin American country in the energy sector as the first strategy.

METHODOLOGY

The article's methodology is exploratory, collecting information and processing it on the specific topic of hydropower development in Ecuador, and it is presented with two qualitative and quantitative approaches. For example, the qualitative part gives notions and definitions of the hydropower development of Ecuador and the future perspectives.

In the quantitative part, the energy production data of the last twenty years are recovered from 20 hydropower plants determined indicators of difference in energy production to final project this percentage at the five emblematic plants contemplated in the National Determined Contribution of Ecuador to operate until 2025.

To calculate the future, we do a percentual difference of the last 20 years, knowing the energy production of the actual hydropower plants working, dividing the energy data into periods of 10 years, have a variance (increase/decrease) of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, calculating the discrepancies between these two periods. The average of each of the last decades is executed to look for a trend and thus be able to project future analyses.

Moreover, to project the upcoming difference conservatively to the emblematic plants, the data according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios that mention climate change can have fluctuations related to evolution lines divided into four groups (A1, A2, B1, and B2). The A-line presents a pessimistic scenario where emissions are maintained or increase in the future. The evolution line B represents an optimistic scenario in which greenhouse gasses emissions are reduced worldwide (Alley et al., 2007; Arango-Aramburo et al., 2019). In this context, besides explaining the IPCC scenarios in groups to emulate our future analyses.

In our methodology, at the researcher's criterion, we just take lines A1, B1, and B2 because we believe that these are the evolution aspects more realistic for the future scenarios when the projections depending on the region evolution with gradual changes, accelerated in some sectors and slow in others, in addition to criteria of divided economic growth marked by developed countries and partially by developing countries.

Moreover, the reduction percentage and variation are from the researcher's assumptions with the consulting data of IPCC. On the other hand, a reflection of the qualitative issues is generated on scientific bases. The ideas and conclusions of various studies on climate change and hydroelectricity were obtained and collected to integrate into the discussion of the manuscript.

In both approaches, the National Determined Contribution of Ecuador determines the five analyzed projects, contributing to the interconnected national system of 2275 MW and a projection of the future capacity to 2050 (Corporación Eléctrica de Ecuador, 2021).

RESULTS

As mentioned in the methodology, the historical behavior of the plants over the last 20 years is first understood to analyze future hydroelectric production. To do energy examination, we use data from the Ministry of Energy to 20 hydropower projects in Ecuador, doing the specification of energy generated in MWh to 2000, 2010, and 2020 in table 4.

As shown in table 4, we have the data of 20 hydropower projects in Ecuador over the last 20 years and the energy tendency divided into ten-year periods to calculate the percentual difference (increase/decrease). Finally, we make an average between 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 in table 5. The key is finding the energy production's tendency (amplified or reduced) around these 20 years.

The energy results are part of the variations that reduce the energy efficiency of each project, as the analysis of the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition of Ecuador did in the National Determined Contribution plan that mentions climate change is a big threat to energy systems (Ministry of Environment and Water, 2021). The tabulation results between the two periods of 10 years give us a global hydropower generation reduction of 19%, a percentage that in 20 years can be projected to the capacity of the emblematic hydropower projects.

Moreover, the total average means each year of a 0.95% energy reduction in hydropower production. For the projects to be in operation until 2025 from the National Determined Contribution, we can throw a future decrease with the tendency calculated in Table 5. Thus, we need the temperature and precipitation information, the official trends establish that climate change is a worldwide problem, and Ecuador is not unaware. To the reference period 1960 – 2015, the rains increased on the Coast by 33%; Sierra by 13%, and only in the Amazon was a 1% reduction in rainfall where rains were previously common (Ministry of the Environment, 2019; Naranjo-Silva, Punina, Álvarez, 2022).

As a result, making a lineal reduction with the different scenarios as illustrated in table 3, we project a capacity to 2050 around the besides calculus for the emblematic projects, called emblematic by the capacity that changed in a notable way the renewables increase in energy grid of Ecuador.

In addition, doing a scenario of just the reduction of the 50% percent that is 0.48%, and 30% represents 0.29% of each year's reduction presents the following series:

On the other hand, the conception of the emblematic projects means that these hydropower plants will drastically change Ecuador's energy grid by their capacity to integrate clean energy into national consumption. They are also presented as the largest constructions and investments in infrastructure over the last years (Vaca-Jiménez et al., 2019). With the background of the hydropower development in the unconditional energy scenario and the first strategy, next analyzing each project's state, benefits, and problems related to complying with the first initiative of the National Determined Contribution of Ecuador with compliance of 2019 goals sets.

DISCUSSION

As the results show, in the five projects established as emblematic by Ecuador in the First National Determined Contribution, the biggest problem is the delay in work execution; some operate but are not at 100% capacity. Moreover, the results of the 20 hydropower projects show a future reduction, due to the climate change, in the generation parameter that will not allow the real capacity of the emblematic plants (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón, and Delsintagua). The variable aspects due to the changing climate, it is pertinent to clarify that hydropower energy depends on the availability of natural resources and their interaction with precipitation to play an essential protagonist in the runoff of flows; all these aspects represent an obstacle to achieve the National Determined Contribution goal with the emblematic hydropower projects in Ecuador (Naranjo-Silva & Álvarez, 2021a; Villamar et al., 2021).

Overall, the results of table 6, 7 and 8 of each projection show a reduction in the projected capacity. However, it depends on the Ecuadorian Government's need to apply to mitigate actions on the hydropower developments to corroborate these results. We can compare with Van Vliet's study that presents a vulnerability assessment of the world's current hydropower generation system to climate change affecting water resources, testing water and energy adaptation options during the 21st century. Using hydrological-electric modeling coupled with data on 24,515 hydroelectric plants globally, it showed reductions in usable capacity between 61–74% for hydropower plants worldwide for the scenario of time 2040–2069 by the climate change (van Vliet, van Beek et al., 2016; van Vliet, Wiberg et al., 2016).

In addition, comparing our results from tables 6 to 8, we have the research of Carvajal in 2019 year, whose show that hydropower energy generates impacts by using environmental conditions, and it is evident that the deployment of hydroelectricity indicates uncertainty in the global climate model shows that for Ecuador the hydropower energy would vary significantly between 53% and 81% by 2050, which means that Ecuador's National Determined Contribution goal would be achieved without the distribution of a large hydroelectric infrastructure, but rather through a more diversified energy group (Carvajal et al., 2019; Carvajal & Li, 2019).

In 2005, the World Bank conducted a study that examined the multiplier effects of large hydropower projects in several countries. This report indicates that hydropower multipliers range from 1.4 to 2.0, which means that for every dollar invested in dam-related activities, 40 to 100 cents can be generated indirectly in the region for every dollar invested (Edenhofer et al., 2011; Schaeffer et al., 2013). Hence, it is estimated that this type of renewable energy would require a billion dollars to compensate for the deterioration caused by climate change in the last 18 years of hydropower generation (Turner et al., 2017).

According to the scenarios projected by the Inter-American Development Bank in many countries, hydropower will be susceptible to the climatic variations. It will lose efficiency due to climate change, reduction of water causes, and it will conclude to be the main source of supply, for which it will become a facilitator of other renewable energies, which will benefit both environmentally and in the reduction of other impacts (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, s.f.). It means that the role of hydropower will gradually shift from a firm source of production that covers a growing demand to a flexible source that complements other renewable energy sources, such as wind, geothermal, solar, and tidal.

Across the world, with millions of people, there are high vulnerabilities to the current and expected effects of climate change that often affect the poorest. Climate change will affect precipitation, increase the melting of snow and glaciers, change evaporation fluxes, and disrupt the natural water cycle, creating a complex uncertainty for water resource management and hydroelectric development (Zhang et al., 2018; Naranjo-Silva et al., 2022).

Climate change influences all existing hydropower plants and possible future projects; therefore, new projects have greater freedom to generate design choices. Future lines can determine the climate simulations and related effectiveness to a changing environment that needs adaptation parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented scenarios show a lineal reduction denominated A1 that can accumulate up to 1839 MW to 2050, in the medium scenario denominated B1 the capacity can show up to 1995 MW, and in the conservative scenario B2 up to 2104 MW. The total capacity for the five emblematic hydropower projects (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón, and Delsintagua) that were thought of at 2275 MW initially. Therefore, the projection has a percentual reduction to 2050 of 19%, 12 and 8% of their capacities to the scenarios A1, B1, and B2 respectively.

As a climatically sensitive technology, hydropower contributes significantly to reducing global climate change. However, it is becoming increasingly inefficient due to climatic variations, which are becoming more prominent, as seen in Ecuador's power generation trend during the last two decades.

Climate change constitutes one of Ecuador's most significant challenges to meet the goals of the National Determined Contribution projected in the energy sector by hydropower production to the inefficiency calculated in 19% accentuated in the last 20 years in 20 projects presented in table 5.

The National Determined Contribution implementation plan can be actualized every two years to control the hydropower energy production to know the real carbon reduction capacity and the projected efficiency. With our calculations, the five projects are affected by the climate change impacts with the historical data.

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